I just finished reading a “prediction” post called 9 Digital Trends for 2010. While some of the predictions were pretty expected (e.g. Facebook will continue to have an impact in 2010), a few of them really made me think.
The #9 prediction was that there would be “more Flash, not less” on websites in 2010. The authors posit that Flash on websites will experience a resurgence online in 2010 due to increased adoption of broadband, improved track-ability, and new options for making flash sites more search engine friendly. They also predict that flash will deliver the “rich, brand-extending experiences” that consumers are craving.
While I’ll keep an open mind for Flash in 2010, I still have many doubts built up from whenever Flash came out through 2009:
Are there exceptions to the above? Of course, but exceptions won’t make something a trend in 2010.
Another thing to keep in mind about Flash is that there are really two schools of use: One is using Flash animation, and the other is using the Flash format to deliver true video experiences. In my opinion, using Flash to deliver video experiences is the more valuable of the two approaches, so maybe that’s where the resurgence in 2010 will come from?
Another question in my mind is whether Adobe’s recent acquisition of Omniture will have any effect on the track-ability of the Flash technology. My bet is “yes,” but I’m not sure how soon changes will come.
So, Grok readers, what are your feelings about Flash in 2010? Do you plan on using it more? Less? The same?